The major U.S. stock market indexes have lost roughly 12% to 25% this year. Time to buy? Not so fast, based on a technical analysis of current market conditions. More downside ahead for the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the S&PP 500, and the Nasdaq Composite.

Technicians examine chart patterns, trading volume and other statistics to identify likely turning points. Unlike fundamental analysts, who try to determine asset value by studying financial or economic factors, technicians examine chart pattern, and trading volume. Andrew Addison, a veteran market technician, proprietor of the Institutional View research service, and a sometime contributor to Barron's.

There is no evidence that more stocks are reversing their downtrends as the broad indexes fall, he says. Nor has there been a “meaningful contraction’ in the number of stocks hitting new lows, he adds. “When markets are about to make a meaningful turn, you find that the action in the index is camouflaging strength or weakness beneath the surface,” he writes.

The S&PP 500 has broken below 4050, and potentially 3600. Addison sees support for the Dow around 29,000 to 30,000. “Until the market’s internals improve, any rallies are likely to be short-lived, like a tropical rainstorm,” he says.
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