Bond yields are rising again so far in 2022. The days of making easy money are over in the pandemic era. The U.S. stock market seems vulnerable to a bona fide correction. But what can you really tell from a mere two weeks into a new year?

The U.S. consumer-price and producer-price index releases this week have only cemented the market’s expectations of a more aggressive or hawkish monetary policy from the Fed. The only real question is how many interest-rate increases will the Federal Open Market Committee dole out in 2022.

Yields for the 10-year Treasury note yielded 1.771% Friday afternoon. Yields have climbed by about 26 basis points in the first 10 trading days to start a calendar year. That would be the briskest such rise since 1992, according to Dow Jones Market Data.

During rate-hike cycles, the market tends to perform strongly, not poorly. Back 30 years ago, the 10-year rose 32 basis points to around 7% to start that year. To be sure, it is harder to see the market producing outperformance...
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