cointelegraph.com/news/is-it-foolish-to-expect-a-massive-ethereum-price-surge-pre-and-post-merge
Ether’s 85% gain in the past 30 days has surprised even the most bullish investors. Bulls now hope to turn $1,900 to support, but derivatives metrics tell a completely different story. The leading cryptocurrency, Bitcoin (BTC), gained 28% in the same period.

The mainnet transition is set to begin on Sept. 15 or 16. It aims for higher scalability and extremely low fees due to sharding, the parallel processing mechanism. The equivalent inflation will be drastically cut as miners no longer need to be compensated by newly minted coins.

Ether’s futures premium has been negative since Aug. 1. Retail traders usually avoid quarterly futures due to their price difference from spot markets. Still, the Merge does not address the processing limit, or the amount of data that can be validated and inserted into each block.

The Ether futures premium entered the negative area on Aug. 1, indicating excessive demand for bearish bets. Usually, this situation is an alarming red flag known as “backwardation.” According to Roshun Patel, former vice president at Genesis Trading, Ether futures have flipped into backwardation due to “fork odds”

The 30-day delta skew bottomed at -4% on July 18, the lowest level since October 2021. Such numbers reveal traders’ unwillingness to take downside risks using ETH options. Not even the recent 85% rally instilled confidence in professional investors. Traders expect full-blown volatility ahead for ETH.
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