cnbc.com/2022/08/09/britain-is-becoming-an-emerging-market-country-analyst-says.html
The Bank of England warned last week that the U.K. economy will enter its longest recession since the Great Financial Crisis in the fourth quarter. The only factor missing from a characterization as an EM country, Dembik said, is a currency crisis, with the British pound holding firm.

The Bank of England warned last week that the U.K. economy will enter its longest recession since the Great Financial Crisis in the fourth quarter. Inflation is projected to peak above 13% in October. The central bank is not anticipating a sharp rebound from the recession, and sees GDP remaining 1.75% below today's levels in mid-2025.

The U.K.'s energy price cap is set to rise by another 70% in October, pushing energy bills above £3,400 ($4,118) per year. A new prime minister will be announced on Sept. 5 after Boris Johnson's resignation. The country has also been battling trade disruptions due to Brexit and Covid-related bottlenecks.

All leading indicators point to more pain ahead for the British economy. New car registrations fell from 1.835 million in July 2021 to 1.528 million last month, a drop of 14%. "This is the lowest level since the end of the 1970s. The recession will be long and deep. There won't be an easy escape," he said.

"The U.K. economy is crushed. The Bank of England assesses the slump will last with GDP still 1.75% below today's levels in mid-2025," Dembik said. "Outside of the jobs markets, there are signs that some of the key inflation drivers may be starting to ease," he said.
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